GMT20140604 21:50 Trend Analysis of Democurrency

Bitcoin:

Trend forecasting is not playing dice: what will happen with no news, what will happen when rumor spreads, what will happen when true bad news comes out.

If I had written like this, I would cough blood.

If you are puzzled when rumor or true bad news spread, please read Lao Sheng Chang Tan (Commonplace).

This round is driven by foreign market. Most buyers are staying on the sidelines. They are all waiting to enter the market when the market is clear to rise. Only minority buyers have an urge to buy the orders above and this leads to price-jumping. The rising by 50% in this round is due to these minority buyers. But it is surprising that the trading volume is so slight. This demonstrates that the coins have been absorbed by strategic funds after the super bad news from MT and PBC. Strategic funds don’t hope Bitcoin rise suddenly and sharply. On the contrary, they expect Bitcoin to dive and they can buy more coins. They wouldn’t push up price even if they don’t buy in more.

The key of above paragraphs is the standard for “clear to rise” . The ideal trend is that it will move sideways at price of 5000 and then rise. This possibility is high. Another possibililty, by the power of market “wisdom” and “reflexivity”, is that It will go on rising and rising, and all buyers that wait for explicit rising signal will miss the market. When Bitcoin has set a new high, they still darenot to buy high because they are afraid of a big dive after 3 times rise. When Bitcoin has rised to the moon, they just become crazy and buy up at any price. Then this round rise will end after price doublling within a single day.

These possibilities are just possibilities. But they are both good. Other possibilities have fewer chance.

I will not predict short-term trend because of dicing starts. Anyway the falling in this round will not be deep.

Altcoin:

Altcoin Index 1 is 6.23, down 2.7%. Altcoin Index 2 is 2.37, down 5.7%.

Altcoins fall deeper than Bitcoin. This demonstrates that market are bleeding as a whole. It’s a good news for future entrance to the market for us.